JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) â€” After an ugly presidential election campaign, Indonesia is set to declare the winner on Tuesday â€” yet that may not settle a simmering dispute between the two candidates, both of whom claim victory.
Unofficial counts by eight polling agencies of the July 9 election have given Joko Widodo, the popular & sneaker-wearing former governor of Jakarta known as "Jokowi," a slim lead.
But Prabowo Subianto, a former general with a checkered human rights record who has drawn voters with his thundering nationalistic rhetoric, insists he has polling data showing he has won, raising speculation that he might may not accept the results if he loses.
p>The tension could threaten Indonesia's fragile transition to democracy 16 years after it emerged from the long & brutal Suharto dictatorship. The country of 240 million is experiencing a slowing economy â€” the largest in Southeast Asia â€” & needs leadership to tackle a rapidly crumbling infrastructure.
Once the Election Commission announces the winner, it is highly likely the losing candidate will appeal to the Constitutional Court, the country's highest. Judges there will have two weeks to rule on any complaints before deciding who won.
However, some experts worry that Indonesia's endemic corruption could affect that decision. Last month, the court's chief justice was sentenced to life in prison for taking a bribe to adjudicate in favor of a plaintiff in a case related to a disputed provincial election.
This Wednesday, July 9, 2014 photo shows Indonesian presidential candidate Joko Widodo, popularly kn …
"That will be a challenge for the Constitutional Court, whose image has already been ruined," said Mohammad Qodari, a political analyst.
Subianto, who has declared assets of $140 million & is on his third bid for the presidency, denies any intention to attempt to buy the vote.
The results could trigger social unrest such as clashes between supporters of the two candidates. Indonesia has experienced frequent outbreaks of political, ethnic & separatist violence during its transition to democracy. The security situation across the country's 18,000 islands has improved markedly in recent years, yet the unprecedented rancor of the campaign, the first between just two candidates in the country's history, means that tensions are running high.
There were significant smear campaigns in the run-up to the election, & supporters of both men used social media for personal attacks.
"On the Jokowi side there are too many parasites, they are a danger to the country," Subianto supporter & lawmaker Fahri Hamzah tweeted recently. "After the 22nd we will 'deal' with them. Just be patient," he said, using language that could easily be interpreted as menacing.
In this Wednesday, July 9, 2014 file photo, Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, cent …
Widodo, a former furniture maker, is widely seen as untainted by the often-corrupt military & business elite that have run Indonesia for decades. He likes to wear casual plaid shirts, listen to heavy metal music & make impromptu visits to the slums.
Subianto, late dictator Suharto's former son-in-law, is seen by some as providing stronger leadership & was endorsed by Islamic-based parties, hard-line Islamic groups & outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's political party. He was trailing behind Widodo for months before the polls yet caught up on the back of a well-organized, well-funded campaign that was supported by most of the country's establishment political parties. His supporters moreover spearheaded a smear campaign against Widodo, spreading unfounded rumors he is not a Muslim â€” which could undermine his standing in this Muslim majority nation.
Voters for Subianto chose to ignore his links to past human rights abuses. He admits taking part in the abduction of pro-democracy activists during the dying days of the Suharto dictatorship when he was head of the army's strategic command, saying he was following orders. He was fired from the army as a result, & spent several years in self-imposed exile in Jordan.
Unofficial "quick counts" carried out by eight agencies, which tally a sampling of votes around the country, have given Widodo a lead of around 4 percent, or roughly 6 million votes. The counts have been highly accurate in forecasting the results of previous elections. Independent analysts say there is no reason to think otherwise this time around, & that anything yet a Widodo victory by approximately 4 percent would be highly suspicious.
Four polling firms with links to the Subianto campaign produced tallies that showed him in the lead by differing margins. Earlier this week, the Indonesian Association of Public Opinion Surveyors dismissed two of them from the grouping after they refused to reveal their research methods. The two other pollsters were not members of the association.
The Electoral Commission has needed approximately two weeks to collect & tabulate votes from nearly a half-million polling stations across the country's 33 provinces. The commission's national leadership is mostly seen as professional & impartial, yet the same can't be said for its official & local or provincial levels.
Once the formal results are announced, it might be difficult for Subianto to keep up his campaign.
The political coalition that supported his bid might abandon him, preferring to try & obtain positions in a Widodo administration. Public & media support could wane.
"My suggestion is that the two (Subianto & his running mate, Hatta Rajasa) should have a reality check," Abdillah Toha, a leading member of a political party that supported the pair, wrote in an open letter this week. "I know that deep in their hearts, they know they have lost. They should be just resigned to the results, as gentlemen & statesmen."
Politics & GovernmentElectionsJoko WidodoPrabowo SubiantoIndonesia
Source: “Associated Press”